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Covid 19
#1
Just checking everybody is ok on here. Obviously very worrying times.

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#2
Still here!
Very worrying times, that will have an impact on all of us, and our community, for many years.
While Robert may be dead, Robert was not all Mugabe's.
There are GOOD Mugabe's
It is Warwickshire County Cricket Club!
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#3
Yep... keep safe everyone.
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#4
Yes, I'm OK so far!
I hope everyone else is keeping safe too.
Views on here are my own; but you can keep up-to-date with County Cricket at http://deepextracover.com/
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#5
So far, so good. There are some advantages to living in the sticks.
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#6
(22-03-2020, 09:38 PM)GrizzlyBear Wrote: So far, so good. There are some advantages to living in the sticks.
Same here

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#7
Had to cancel trip to France. Had to cancel holiday in Barbados. But what the heck - I've no symptoms (for now) others are very ill or worse so no moans from me.

Except Mrs LE has a growing list of jobs to do!!
LE - aka John
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#8
Having spent most of my career in risk modelling, I am puzzled by HM Government's statistics. In the extended family of me and Mrs GB (sisters, brothers, nephews, nieces and their partners) there are about 60 people. Four of those 60 have had all the symptoms of covid-19: headache; fever; cough. I'm glad to say that they are all getting better but the interesting point is that none of them have been tested. So none of them feature in the number of confirmed cases.

Two of the four victims live together so could be considered one case. The others are scores of miles apart. I have no reason to think that my family group is at all atypical. If our experience is repeated throughout the population, the goverment's estimate of the number of cases is out by hundreds of thousands, if not millions. I'm not necessarily saying that's anybody's fault - if you haven't got the test kits you can't do the testing - but it will make it much more difficult for the powers that be to make sensible decisions if they are not allowing for their numbers to be out by several orders of magnitude.
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#9
(23-03-2020, 03:43 PM)GrizzlyBear Wrote: Having spent most of my career in risk modelling, I am puzzled by HM Government's statistics. In the extended family of me and Mrs GB (sisters, brothers, nephews, nieces and their partners) there are about 60 people. Four of those 60 have had all the symptoms of covid-19: headache; fever; cough. I'm glad to say that they are all getting better but the interesting point is that none of them have been tested. So none of them feature in the number of confirmed cases.

Two of the four victims live together so could be considered one case. The others are scores of miles apart. I have no reason to think that my family group is at all atypical. If our experience is repeated throughout the population, the goverment's estimate of the number of cases is out by hundreds of thousands, if not millions. I'm not necessarily saying that's anybody's fault - if you haven't got the test kits you can't do the testing - but it will make it much more difficult for the powers that be to make sensible decisions if they are not allowing for their numbers to be out by several orders of magnitude.

The South Korea model seems to have worked - testing, testing and yet more testing:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/23/world...curve.html
Views on here are my own; but you can keep up-to-date with County Cricket at http://deepextracover.com/
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#10
(23-03-2020, 03:43 PM)GrizzlyBear Wrote: Having spent most of my career in risk modelling, I am puzzled by HM Government's statistics. In the extended family of me and Mrs GB (sisters, brothers, nephews, nieces and their partners) there are about 60 people. Four of those 60 have had all the symptoms of covid-19: headache; fever; cough. I'm glad to say that they are all getting better but the interesting point is that none of them have been tested. So none of them feature in the number of confirmed cases.

Two of the four victims live together so could be considered one case. The others are scores of miles apart. I have no reason to think that my family group is at all atypical. If our experience is repeated throughout the population, the goverment's estimate of the number of cases is out by hundreds of thousands, if not millions. I'm not necessarily saying that's anybody's fault - if you haven't got the test kits you can't do the testing - but it will make it much more difficult for the powers that be to make sensible decisions if they are not allowing for their numbers to be out by several orders of magnitude.

I would be extremely surprised if they haven't been taking into account the fact that the actual number of cases is a lot higher than the reported number. A while ago, when the number of reported cases was in the hundreds, one of the chief advisors said that the actual number of active cases was likely to be around 50,000. We desperately need to concentrate more effort into increasing the testing capacity in the UK, so that those not in hospital can also be tested, as the majority of cases don't require hospital treatment. A test to determine if someone has had the virus in the past would also be a huge development, as it could allow those who may not be certain if they've had it to leave their homes without risk of infecting anyone else.
Proud to be a Bear
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#11
Dated two days ago, so maybe everyone is doing this anyway now, but the death rate is the only thing you can meaningfully compare because there is such variance in testing. Germany’s ratio of cases to deaths is seemingly the most favourable, but it’s well known they tested extensively.

(24-03-2020, 04:36 PM)Exiled Bear Wrote:
(23-03-2020, 03:43 PM)GrizzlyBear Wrote: Having spent most of my career in risk modelling, I am puzzled by HM Government's statistics. In the extended family of me and Mrs GB (sisters, brothers, nephews, nieces and their partners) there are about 60 people. Four of those 60 have had all the symptoms of covid-19: headache; fever; cough. I'm glad to say that they are all getting better but the interesting point is that none of them have been tested. So none of them feature in the number of confirmed cases.

Two of the four victims live together so could be considered one case. The others are scores of miles apart. I have no reason to think that my family group is at all atypical. If our experience is repeated throughout the population, the goverment's estimate of the number of cases is out by hundreds of thousands, if not millions. I'm not necessarily saying that's anybody's fault - if you haven't got the test kits you can't do the testing - but it will make it much more difficult for the powers that be to make sensible decisions if they are not allowing for their numbers to be out by several orders of magnitude.

I would be extremely surprised if they haven't been taking into account the fact that the actual number of cases is a lot higher than the reported number. A while ago, when the number of reported cases was in the hundreds, one of the chief advisors said that the actual number of active cases was likely to be around 50,000. We desperately need to concentrate more effort into increasing the testing capacity in the UK, so that those not in hospital can also be tested, as the majority of cases don't require hospital treatment. A test to determine if someone has had the virus in the past would also be a huge development, as it could allow those who may not be certain if they've had it to leave their homes without risk of infecting anyone else.
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#12
Worrying times; I really hope that all Bears fans are fit and well; I note the sad passing of David Hodgkiss (Lancashire CCC chairman) due to the virus.

Personally speaking, my family are well; my son had to self isolate for 7 days due to a temperature (He got sent home from school 8 days before the schools were closed to kids) but he and the household are fit and well.

My wife is a teacher, but her school is closed anyway (She teaches at a special school and all her kids are in the at risk group) so she has found a new role as our kids' teacher. I am classed as a key worker (I work for HMRC in a role that is classed as critical for "collecting revenue for the state" according to the letter I have received.) On the other hand, I am a type 1 diabetic, so I am not going out unless it is unavoidable (Fortunately I can do most of my work from home)

Currently my biggest worry is about my parents; my Dad (Aged 58) is a butcher and so needs to carry on working to help to maintain the food supply; my Mum (Aged 60) is a bank manager and so has to keep working at present (Although she states that her branch has been empty for the past week, only the cash machine is busy at present) thankfully my surviving grandparents (Aged 86 and 90) have heeded warnings to stay at home.

I am troubled by the lack of testing carried out in this country; as a statistician I know that we can only draw conclusions from the data available, therefore why not attempt to harvest as much data as possible? That said, based on the numbers revealed on 30/03/20, there is cautious optimism that the rate of infection does not appear to be increasing exponentially at present. (I understand that this may be subject to change)

I live in a multicultural area of Wolverhampton, it was lovely to hear the applause for the NHS last week; people clapping, my Indian Muslim neighbours banging pots and pans (As others did in our neighbourhood) and people blowing horns, setting off fireworks etc. If anything good can possibly come from this, it is that it may bring us closer together in adversity.

Stay safe everyone; I know that I will appreciate my next visit to Edgbaston in a way that I haven't since I was a kid.
Bears fan, Wolves fan, blood red Socialist, a not so vital statistician...
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#13
Like randombear, I hope that everyone is safe.  It may be that bears can't catch the virus but Bears can.
Although I am in a vulnerable age group, I'm fine.  My main worry is my brother who is younger than me but is in the advanced stages of Parkinson's disease.  So far, he is OK and is being well  cared for.
Last week, we had a family and friends reunion but we did it by Skype.  Even though it was to commemorate a sad event, it was a really happy occasion and brought people together (remotely) who hadn't been in touch for ages.  I've also used Zoom for remote meetings.  So isolation doesn't necessarily mean no communication.
I also agree that the next time of entering Edgbaston will feel really special.  My guess is that, if there is any cricket this year, attendances will be way higher than normal, rather like they were after the War.
Anyway, take care and keep safe!
Views on here are my own; but you can keep up-to-date with County Cricket at http://deepextracover.com/
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#14
HMRC - Key Workers - brave of you revealing that Randombear!!!!

Seriously hope you and your family and you Terry as well as all the Bears get through these troubled times unscathed.

Let's hope among many other things that sport returns soon.
LE - aka John
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#15
"I also agree that the next time of entering Edgbaston will feel really special. My guess is that, if there is any cricket this year, attendances will be way higher than normal, rather like they were after the War."

I agree Terry; I was speaking to a friend of mine at the weekend who is a member at Sussex and he was saying the same thing. It is the prospect of enjoying pleasures that have been denied us that should sustain us through these dark times.

"HMRC - Key Workers - brave of you revealing that Randombear!!!!"

Yeah, it is usually a popular declaration! Just doing my part, a very small part to keep the money rolling in. I told my staff last week that their work was essential and that they should never forget the benefit of what they do (Although I did have to laugh when one of my team joked "do you think we will get a minute's applause for the tax man?" Have to say I can't see that one happening!) I hope that the current emergency has reconfirmed the fact that nurses, carers, cleaners, binmen and supermarket cashiers are as vital to society as workers who are paid many times higher than they are.

Stay safe everybody and see you at Edgbaston when we are smiling again.
Bears fan, Wolves fan, blood red Socialist, a not so vital statistician...
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